Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Glass half full or half empty?


My bias has been bearish for the past couple of days. Fundamentally I refuse to believe that things have changed dramatically for the financial stocks to rally this hard.After every close the case for a pull back gets stronger .Every technical indicator shows us overbought and extended.Yet much to the bears dismay we keep on charging ahead.
Personally I have made the same mistake both time I have traded this week.I have ignored every bullish set up I came across expecting a sell off.Today when I was looking to short XLF I could have easily gone long when it broke above $8.60 with volume.But I insisted to look at the glass half empty and did not act.I need to ignore what I expect to happen and trade the opportunity that comes up.
I am going to take it easy the rest of the week.I believe for a considerable leg down we need some bad news.Just the overbought conditions are not enough to curb the enthusiasm the bulls have.Even a profit taking day won't be as bad as bears desperately want it to be.

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